This week, Beijing revealed that China’s population dropped in 2022 for the first time since the 1960s. The country, which has a population of roughly 1.4 billion people, reported 9.56 million births in 2022, while the number of deaths was 10.41 million. This new data confirms a larger trend: China is facing serious demographic stress fueled by decades of its strict one-child policy and a boost in life expectancy. Nicholas Eberstadt considers how demographic trends will affect future geopolitics, arguing that population projections could dampen a country’s ambitions—or propel states to prominence.
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